Interactive Dashboard | January - November | Year-End Analysis & 2026 Outlook
2025 was a transformational year for Goldy Bytes, marked by 237% revenue growth from $4,451 in January to $15,013 in November.
The business shipped 226,213 units (+25% YoY), with October setting a monthly record at 32,640 units.
However, this growth came with a structural shift that demands attention: Pick n Pay exploded from 9% to 42% market share,
fundamentally reshaping channel dynamics. While this diversified revenue away from Spar, it also increased concentration risk to 85%
across just two partners. The collapse of OK Zimbabwe (ceased trading, $25M losses) and the informal market (ZIMRA crackdowns, fire damage)
eliminated two channels entirely.
The key question for 2026: Can growth continue while reducing the dangerous dependence on two retailers?
The data suggests yes—if Spar's November decline is addressed and Bhola is developed as a third pillar.
The chart below reveals two distinct growth phases: a volatile H1 with month-to-month swings of up to 48%, followed by a more consistent H2 acceleration. Notice how May and July dipped before strong recoveries—this "sawtooth" pattern suggests supply or demand seasonality worth investigating. The critical insight: H2 generated 41% more revenue than H1, indicating the business found its footing mid-year.
This visualization tells the story of 2025's most dramatic shift. Drag the slider to watch Pick n Pay's meteoric rise from minor player (9%) to near market leader (42%). This wasn't gradual—PnP gained 28 points between January and June alone, then added 5 more by November. Meanwhile, Spar lost 11 points despite remaining the largest YTD contributor. The question isn't who's winning—it's whether this concentration is sustainable.
+366% share growth (9% → 42%). Overcame October payment issues to post +101% YoY in November. Now within 1 point of Spar. This is the comeback story of 2025.
-11 share points (54% → 43%). Still #1 in YTD volume (57%), but November saw -36% MoM drop. Urgent investigation needed—is this pricing, stock availability, or relationship issue?
Two channels eliminated. OK ceased trading ($25M losses, 11+ store closures). Informal collapsed under ZIMRA crackdowns and fire damage. Combined, these were 15%+ of January share—now zero.
So what? The business is more dependent on fewer partners than at year start—despite growth. Every 1% shift in Spar or PnP now equals ~$1,000/month in revenue. A 10% drop in either would be catastrophic. Bhola must become a 20%+ partner in 2026.
H2 growth varied dramatically by channel. TM Branch led at +80%, while Other channels collapsed -59%. This divergence explains the concentration increase—strong performers got stronger, weak performers disappeared.
So what? Resources should flow to winners: TM Branch and Bhola deserve increased allocation. "Other" channels should be formally exited to stop wasting sales time on dead ends.
Lightly Salted dominates at 48% of revenue. This isn't a balanced portfolio—it's a single-flavor business with variants. Hover over segments to see revenue breakdown. The opportunity: Lightly Salted growth, not new flavor development.
So what? Don't dilute focus by developing new flavors. Double down on Lightly Salted distribution and visibility. Consider rationalizing 20S SKUs if margin is lower.
The Pareto chart below reveals a classic 80/20 imbalance—but worse. The top 10 customers generate 43% of revenue, meaning 120 other customers split the remaining 57%. The orange line shows cumulative percentage: note how it curves steeply then flattens. This shape indicates high dependency on a small customer base.
Top 10 customers = 43% of revenue. If your #1 customer (SPAR Greensfields, $7,283) stopped ordering tomorrow, you'd lose 7% of annual revenue instantly. If your top 3 left, that's 20%.
| # | Customer | Revenue | Cumul % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SPAR Greensfields | $7,283 | 7.0% |
| 2 | SPAR Athienitis | $6,764 | 13.5% |
| 3 | SPAR The Bridge | $6,641 | 19.9% |
| 4 | SPAR Montagu | $4,103 | 23.8% |
| 5 | Bhola Megamart | $4,054 | 27.7% |
So what? Lock in the top 5 with annual agreements or volume incentives. Meanwhile, re-engage the 35 churned customers—recovering half would add $4,800/year.
The forecast below projects 2025's trajectory into 2026, showing three scenarios based on different assumptions. The shaded area represents the range of likely outcomes. Note how uncertainty widens further into the future— this is honest forecasting, not false precision. The base case assumes current momentum continues without major disruptions.
Assumes: Spar continues decline (-5% more share), PnP stabilizes at current levels, no new channels added, 35 churned customers not recovered. This is the "do nothing" scenario.
Assumes: Spar stabilized (flat share), PnP continues +20% growth, Bhola expands to 15% share, half of churned customers recovered. Requires action but achievable.
Assumes: Spar relationship repaired (+10%), PnP accelerates (+30%), Bhola reaches 20% share, new channel (Food Lovers/N&R) adds 5%. Aggressive but not impossible.
If PnP maintains November's +101% YoY growth rate, they alone could add $40,000+ in 2026. This is the most likely source of upside surprise.
November's -36% MoM is unexplained. If this continues, base case drops to conservative. If resolved, growth scenario becomes achievable. This is the swing factor.
If either Spar OR PnP relationship deteriorates significantly, all scenarios fail. There is no hedge against losing a 40%+ partner. Bhola development is insurance, not just growth.
This matrix plots risks by likelihood (how probable) vs. impact (how damaging). Bubbles in the top-right are critical—high probability AND high impact. Note that Channel Concentration sits in the danger zone: it's both likely to cause problems (85% in two partners) and would have severe impact if either partner left.
So what? The risk profile is dominated by concentration. Every other risk is either already realized (OK, Informal) or manageable (Churn). The strategic imperative is clear: reduce dependence on Spar + PnP from 85% to below 70% by developing Bhola and exploring new channels.
Based on the analysis above, these eight recommendations are prioritized by urgency and impact. Critical items (red) should begin in January. Urgent items (amber) should be completed in Q1. Strategic items (purple) are medium-term initiatives for Q2-Q4.
Investigate November's -36% MoM drop within 2 weeks. Check: pricing competitiveness, stock availability, buyer relationship changes. Spar is 57% of YTD volume—this cannot wait.
Schedule partnership review meeting. Propose: volume commitments for 2026, expanded SKU range, promotional calendar. They overcame October payment issues—reward loyalty with commitment.
Target: 20% share by end of 2026 (from 13%). They're reliable (zero payment issues), growing geographically (Masvingo, Beitbridge), and have 200%+ YoY growth. Assign dedicated account management.
$9,639 in prior revenue at risk. Launch win-back campaign: special pricing, new product samples, sales visit blitz. Target: recover 50% ($4,800) by end of Q1.
Collapsed to 0% (ZIMRA pressure, fire damage). Stop allocating sales time. Formally close accounts and reallocate resources to winning channels.
New retail partners reduce concentration risk. Initial meetings in Q2, pilot by Q3. Target: 5% share from new channel by Q4. Even small diversification helps.
48% of sales from one flavor profile. Don't dilute with new development—increase distribution and visibility of existing Lightly Salted SKUs. Consider rationalizing underperforming 20S packs.
Base case = 22% volume growth. Audit: production capacity, raw material supply, packaging inventory, logistics partners. Constraint now is better than stockout later.
The Good: 2025 delivered exceptional growth—237% revenue increase, 25% volume growth, and successful navigation of two channel collapses (OK Zimbabwe, Informal). Pick n Pay's emergence as a near co-leader (+366% share) provides a powerful growth engine for 2026.
The Concern: Growth came at the cost of increased concentration. 85% of volume now flows through just two partners. Spar's November -36% MoM drop is unexplained and worrying. The loss of OK Zimbabwe and Informal eliminates any safety net.
The Path Forward: Target $175,000 revenue and 275,000 units in 2026 (+68% and +22% respectively). Achieve this by: (1) stabilizing Spar immediately, (2) formalizing PnP partnership, (3) developing Bhola to 20% share, and (4) exploring Food Lovers/N&R as new channel. The goal isn't just growth—it's resilient growth that doesn't collapse if one partner sneezes.
What the Data Tells Us
So what? The growth trajectory is sustainable—this isn't a one-time spike. However, the mid-quarter dips warrant investigation: are they supply-side (stock-outs) or demand-side (customer ordering patterns)? Solving this could unlock another 10-15% annual revenue.